Eurozone Gaining Confidence as Spanish Banks Ease Dependancy
Is there
confusion again over Spain's banks? If so its not really new. On
one hand, the Bank of Spain said in mid-January that non-performing loans were
on the increase and that more than one in nine would probably not be
repaid. On the other, the central bank said at the same time that Spanish
banks were less dependent on emergency funding from the European Central
Bank. In December they borrowed €357bn, appreciably less than the €411bn
they took last August. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is relaxed. He is
"absolutely convinced that Spanish financial institutions will not require
any more funds than they were given already" because they have been
subject to a "complete striptease" laying bare their financial
circumstances.
The prime
minister's optimism is shared, though perhaps with more caution, by investors.
Since the beginning of the year they have been buying bank shares, lifting the
value of Bankinter by a third and Banco Popular Espanol by a quarter. Investors
are also much readier to hold Spanish bonds. Six months ago they were demanding
a return of over 7% on their five-year loans to the government. Today they are
content with less than 4%.
The change
is symptomatic of a warmer attitude among investors towards the euro. A month
ago it looked as if 2013 would turn out to be a better year for the single
currency and halfway through January that is proving to be true.
Since the
turn of the year the euro has strengthened by about five and a half cents
against the pound and by about four cents against the US dollar. It has
done so mostly as a result of improved sentiment. Strange to think it was
about twelve months ago when most of the world were questioning the very
survival of the single currency with a full complement of member states.
Today it feels reasonable to expect that singleness to continue, as a result of
the determination of EU leaders and central bankers to do "whatever it
takes" to save the euro.
Okay
so what else is happening?
Interestingly
instead, it is the pound that must face the tough questions. Even though the UK
economy appears to be in better shape than Euroland, investors are not
satisfied. They fear a third dip into recession. They fear the downgrade of
Britain's AAA credit rating that might follow that dip. They fear the
anti-Europe rhetoric in Westminster and the media. And because of those fears
their appetite for sterling has faded. Add to this the fear of further
job losses in the Financial Services sector and the high street disappearing
unemployment may still have a further negative impact upon the UK's
timetable for recovery
So half the
euro's performance against sterling this year is down to improved demand for
the single currency; the other half is the result of investors' disenchantment
with the pound. Both attitudes could change. It would be unusual if there were
not some new panic in Euroland before too many months have gone by. The UK
economy might pick up speed once the cold weather has passed and people are
allowed to go back to work and school.
Stateside
the new holiday destination of " The Fiscal Cliff" seems to have
disappeared and the republicans have provided Mr Obama a little bit longer to
sort out the economy and the debt ceiling which is standing around
$17trillion. Not sure how many zeros a in a trillion but its a lot. What
the bet it could hit £20 trillion. In fairness however housing,
manufacturing and employment opportunities are all moving in the right way for
the citizens of the USA.
The big
decision if you are transferring money is timing so if you want to make more of
your money and take expert guidance talk to our preferred currency
specialists. If you want to guard against rate fluctuations and get the best deal for your Sterling contact us and read our financial pages here: http://goldacreestates.com/Finance .
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