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Saturday 21 November 2009

Where Is Your Pound going in Spanish Real Estate today

Keith Spitalnick Business Development Manager of Currencies Direct predicts an upward trend for the Value of sterling against the euro by the year end. This is good news for Spanish Real Estate and people looking to buy property in the Canary Islands and Spain, prices could not be better as many new properties today are being offered at discounts and of course you have very good prices on some resale properties from people that are having to sell their Spanish property.

Read Keith full story and prediction of how he sees sterling moving, Keith commented, I keep getting asked is where I see GBP/EUR headed by then. I personally feel that GBP/EUR is in an upward trend however the language from the Bank of England is holding it back, trying to hold the pound low. After Christmas sterling could start to rally. 1.1500 is my short term target.

It’s been another busy week for GBP/EUR as the fallout from the latest Quarterly Inflation report was digested in the papers; the Banks assessment for growth is now twice the latest consensus of their panel of independent forecasters and their predictions for inflation and interest rate levels over the next couple of years have been revised sharply higher. This helped to boost the pound ahead of the Bank of England minutes last Wednesday. The pound also rallied as we saw the UK inflation numbers come in higher than expected. This gave Sterling a strong boost all round, on expectations that, with inflation “surging”, rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. I think that this is an unlikely scenario and that Base Rates will remain at these low levels until the 3rd quarter next year, possibly longer.

The Euro was not so fortunate with comments from ECB president Trichet rattling the euro. He commented that the fiscal situation in some European countries is so bad that there is a danger that markets will lose faith in them. At last a bit of plain talking from the ECB! In addition we saw the Euro current account showing a deficit of €5.4 billion - this was concerning as it identified a surge in imports and slumping exports; this could bring the strength of the euro back to the fore as a red flag for the ECB. If this issue is raised it could start to turn the tide on recent euro strength…

Unfortunately the pound could not hold onto its gains after peaking at 1.13. This was due to the split decision from the Bank of England who were split three ways on the November Quantitative Easing vote. 7 backed the £25 billion increase, David Miles wanted a £40 billion increase and Spencer Dale wanted no change. This undermined sterling which immediately dropped over half a cent against the USD and the Euro. The split has highlighted the indecision on future policy and this is hardly surprising given the implications on monetary policy decisions within the current economic climate.

So overall its the same old problems hurting the pound in the form of QE and concern over public debt. However it is widely expected that UK GDP will be revised higher next week for the third quarter and that fourth quarter data will show an exit from the recession...therefore the pound should start to perform better going forward. Last week we also witnessed one or two red flags from the Euro zone and the recent support of the euro against the US dollar could wane if more concerns arise...this would certainly play into GBP/EUR gains.

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